The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cut expectations + favourable information! Bitcoin breaks through 124,000 USD to create a historical new high, aiming for 150,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged in the Asian early session on Thursday, breaking through $124,000, refreshing the historical high set in July, and reaching a maximum of $124,002.49 during the session. This pump benefited from rising expectations of interest rate cuts by The Federal Reserve (FED), the latest financial reforms in the United States, and the favourable information on encryption policies continuously released by the Trump administration.

The second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum (ETH), also strengthened, reaching $4,780.04, a new high since the end of 2021.

Factors Driving BTC to New Historical Highs

Macroeconomic: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July fell below expectations, increasing the market's bets on a greater probability of an interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.

Policy aspect: The Trump administration has recently introduced several cryptocurrency-friendly policies, including allowing crypto assets to be included in 401(k) retirement accounts, advancing stablecoin regulations, and streamlining the ETF approval process.

Capital Situation: Institutional buying and ETF capital inflows continue to drive market liquidity and confidence.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore pointed out: "The technical indicators continue to break through the $125,000 threshold, which may open an upward channel for BTC towards $150,000."

The Federal Reserve (FED) and Macroeconomic Background

CPI data is weak: inflationary pressure is easing, strengthening the market's expectations for loose monetary policy.

Interest Rate Cut Expectations: Traders are significantly betting on the possibility of a rate cut in September, driving both safe-haven and high-risk assets to strengthen.

Asset Rotation: Against the backdrop of fluctuations in the stock and bond markets, encryption has become a target for some fund allocation.

Favourable Information on the encryption policy of the Trump administration

Regulatory Victory: In 2025, the U.S. encryption industry will see several regulatory breakthroughs, including stablecoin legislation and securities law reform.

401K Opens to Encryption Assets: The latest executive order allows retirement accounts to allocate assets such as BTC and ETH, which is favourable information for ETF issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity.

Market Impact: Since Trump returned to the White House, BTC has increased by 32% this year, and the total market capitalization of the encryption market has soared from $2.5 trillion to $4.18 trillion.

Technical Analysis and Price Target

(Source: Trading View)

Current Trend: BTC is operating within a rising wedge pattern, with short-term support at $123,200. If it stabilizes, it is expected to challenge $126,000.

Technical Indicators:

The RSI is close to the overbought zone, but momentum remains strong.

The MACD shows that the bullish trend continues.

Target Price:

Short term: 126,000 USD

Mid-term: 130,000 USD

Long-term (if it breaks key resistance): 150,000 USD

Conclusion and Market Outlook

Bitcoin has once again set a new historical record under the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED), favourable regulatory information, and the drive of institutional funds.

In the short term, the market will focus on the September FOMC meeting and the progress of U.S. encryption policies. If the macro and policy aspects continue to align, BTC is expected to challenge 150,000 USD within this cycle.

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