Ethereum's net sell pressure reached $418.8 million in a single day, setting a historical second-high. Can on-chain growth and coin-holding faith withstand the pullback risk? | ETH price prediction

Extreme selling signals have appeared on the Ethereum (ETH) on-chain, with the single-day net Taker volume plummeting to -418.8 million USD, marking the second highest negative value in history, indicating a net sell of 116,000 ETH in a single day. Historical data shows that such selling pressure often signals a local top. Although the price temporarily holds the 3,643 USD support, the technical analysis indicates that the bullish cup and handle pattern is facing a risk of failure—if it cannot quickly reclaim the 3,950 USD neckline resistance, a deep pullback may begin. On-chain data reflects a Bull vs Bear Battle: the number of new addresses surged by 29.94% in a single day, reflecting ecological expansion, but the circulation-adjusted NVT ratio skyrocketed, suggesting a short-term overvaluation, while the difference in profits and losses between short-term and long-term holders (MVRV LSD) remains at 12.36%, highlighting the Whale's faith in holding coins. The showdown between bulls and bears is imminent.

Nuclear-level selling pressure: 116,000 ETH net sold in a single day CryptoQuant's on-chain monitoring shows that Ethereum's net recipient amount has plummeted to -418.8 million USD, marking the second largest single-day sell imbalance on record. This indicator means that there has been a net sell-off of 116,000 ETH in the derivatives market (with sell orders far exceeding buy orders). Historical experience suggests that such extreme selling pressure is often a precursor to a price peak reversal.

Price Resilience: Buying Pressure Temporarily Resists Selling Pressure, Bull-Bear Divergence Intensifies It is worth noting that despite experiencing a historical-level dumping, the price of ETH still holds around $3,643, indicating that there is ongoing support in the spot market. Currently, there is significant divergence in the market outlook: some investors expect the pullback to continue, while others believe that this is merely a continuation of the rise.

Technical Alert: Cup and Handle Pattern on the Verge of Failure Technical analysis shows key risks:

1. ETH has previously completed the classic bullish Cup and Handle pattern, theoretically indicating a continuation of the rise.
2. Key breakout point at the $3,950 neckline resistance has not been effectively broken
3. The price is currently consolidating within a descending channel.
4. The neutral value of 57 in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a lack of directional momentum. Conclusion: If the bulls cannot quickly regain control of $3,950, the bullish technical structure will be declared invalid, potentially triggering a deeper pullback.

On-chain Dawn: New Addresses Rise by 29.94% to Hedge Against Downtrend In contrast to the price downturn is the strong growth of the Ethereum network (IntoTheBlock data):

• New Addresses: Daily Increase of 29.94%
• Active Addresses: Increased by 3.17% month-on-month History shows that the growth rate of addresses is the cornerstone of price stability and recovery. The current on-chain activity diverging from coin price may indicate that there is underestimated potential momentum in the market. If user activity remains high, even in the face of selling pressure, ETH may still hold support and brew a rebound.

Holder Map: Overvaluation vs Whale Faith in Firm On-chain valuation indicators show conflicting signals:

• Risk Signal: After the adjustment of circulation, the NVT ratio (Network Value to Transactions) has soared, indicating that the growth rate of market value far exceeds the on-chain transaction volume, which usually signifies overvaluation in the short term.
• Support Signal: The MVRV Long/Short Difference remains high at 12.36%, indicating that long-term holders (LTH) still enjoy considerable unrealized profits. This reflects the strong belief of the whale group in holding coins, as they refuse to sell even when the market weakens, providing a cushion for the price.

Bull vs Bear Battle: Fourfold Game Determines Direction Ethereum is currently at a quadruple battle node of Bull vs Bear Battle.

1. Historical-Level Selling Pressure vs Spot Buying Support
2. bullish technical pattern failure risk vs on-chain user base expansion
3. Short-term valuation overhigh warning vs Long-term holder faith support
4. Key resistance $3,950 vs Current support $3,643

Conclusion: $3,950 Becomes the Bull-Bear Divide Ethereum's short-term fate hinges on the $3,950 line: a successful breakthrough will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend; conversely, if it remains under pressure, it may trigger a deep pullback to test the support below. Positive factors from on-chain data (user growth, Whale holdings) provide resilience to the market, but caution is needed regarding the transmission effects of extreme selling pressure in the derivatives market. In the coming days, Whale holding trends, sustainability of on-chain activity, and key resistance level defenses will become the core dimensions to observe the Bull vs Bear Battle.