Pi Network: From a 10 USD ambition to a 0.4 USD reality - A half-hearted revolution or a sophisticated "trap" in marketing?

For the community of over 65 million Pi Network users, February 20, 2025, is not just a milestone – it is the moment they believe the "new era" has begun. After years of merely "tapping a button" on their phones, the mainnet has finally arrived, igniting a community frenzy with a price ambition of 10 USD. However, when overlooking the enthusiastic cheers, the actual picture painted by the numbers and tricky questions is completely different.

Pi Network: Technological Revolution or Marketing Ploy?

Technically, Pi is based on a version of the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP) - eliminating the need for enormous energy consumption like Bitcoin. Users do not actually "mine" in the traditional sense but instead build "Security Circles" to verify transactions.

Thanks to this "light mining" mechanism, Pi has set an ambitious goal: a maximum supply of 100 billion coins, of which 80% is allocated to the community through login and referral rewards. This is an unprecedented scaling strategy that has helped Pi attract more than 65 million users – a number that many cryptocurrency projects can only dream of.

Nevertheless, the valuation problem is a huge obstacle. With 7.4 billion tokens in circulation at the beginning of 2025, a price of 10 USD would require a market capitalization of 74 billion USD – on par with long-standing "giants" in crypto. Not stopping there, billions of new tokens will continue to be unlocked, pushing selling pressure high and continuously diluting value.

From an ambition of 10 USD to a reality of 0.4 USD

The harsh reality quickly emerged. After the initial surge, the price of Pi plummeted over 84%, falling to $0.4 in the summer of 2025, near an all-time low.

According to data from Pi Scan, nearly 163 million Pi tokens, worth nearly 66 million USD, will be unlocked this month, increasing the circulating supply by an additional 2.1%.

Source: PiscanThe issue is: the current demand is struggling to absorb this enormous supply. As more and more tokens appear on the market without enough buyers, the risk of a sell-off due to panic sentiment may occur, pushing Pi's price down to unprecedented lows.

Last month, Pi Coin lost nearly 18% of its value, plunging from 0.65 USD to 0.42 USD. With the amount of tokens unlocked in August being only half of that in July, a drop of at least 9% is considered a possible scenario, pulling Pi down to around 0.367 USD – establishing a new bottom if the situation worsens.

According to the schedule, August is the largest unlocking period of the year, but the pressure may gradually decrease from September, with 117 million tokens unlocked, followed by 93 million in October and 102.9 million in November. The next large supply pump will occur in December, with 170.5 million Pi tokens joining the market.

Questions about the model and legality

Pi Network remains engulfed in a whirlpool of controversy. The lack of transparency in operations – as the development team maintains tight control over the nodes and continuously delays the deployment of smart contracts – has raised significant questions among many observers about the project. The user referral mechanism, which helped Pi expand its community, has also been compared by many to a multi-level marketing model.

Concerns are growing when considering the issue of data security: millions of people have submitted personal identification documents and biometric data in the KYC process, raising alarms about the risk of privacy violations. At the same time, the risk of being identified as unregistered securities by agencies like the SEC makes the legal future of Pi even more uncertain.

Can Pi reach 10 USD?

The greatest strength of Pi lies in its enormous community of over 65 million users – an asset that few cryptocurrency projects can match. Initiatives like PiFest are being implemented to promote the practical application of this currency. However, the paradox is that the more people hold the amount of Pi that is "mined for free", the greater the pressure to take profits, creating a significant barrier to the price recovery process.

On the daily chart, the RSI index of PI is currently at 32.2, close to the oversold threshold of 30, clearly reflecting the dominance of the bears and indicating that the downward pressure has not yet abated. Furthermore, the fact that the MACD indicator continues to remain in the negative zone further reinforces the negative scenario for this coin.

Price chart of PI 1 day | Source: TradingviewTo reach the milestone of 10 USD, Pi needs a huge community. This currency must become a truly useful ecosystem, where users have reasons to hold and spend Pi instead of liquidating it. It is a long journey that requires immense demand, perfect implementation strategies, and... a bit of luck.

Until those factors converge, the target of 10 USD still resembles more of a prayer than a feasible plan. At this moment, as the supply continues to be unlocked while demand has not increased correspondingly, the risk of Pi continuing to fall deeply – even hitting a new low – is inevitable.

Annie