#杰克逊霍尔会议#

The global financial community will focus this week on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA. The three-day global central bank conference will be held from August 21 to 23 local time, with this year's theme set as "Transforming the Labor Market: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." Policymakers from major economies such as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan will gather with scholars and financial executives to discuss the future direction of monetary policy.
This will be the last time Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attends the Jackson Hole meeting before his term ends in May 2026. He will deliver the keynote speech on August 22, continuing the tradition of using this major event to convey monetary policy. Video produced by: Wang Zun Jun Video edited by: Bai Yan Bing.
Powell's speech is highly anticipated.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold interest rate meetings on September 16 and September 17, and investors are widely expecting the Fed to start cutting interest rates at this meeting. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut next month is slightly lower than last week, but the market is still pricing in an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. The central focus of the market naturally falls on Powell's speech at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. In the past, he has faced policy decisions at different stages with a hawkish anti-inflation or employment-biased attitude, but now economic data suggests that inflation is still above target and employment is slowing, making the policy direction even more confusing. And the economic situation in August 2025 is slightly different from a year ago. On the one hand, recent data suggest that the U.S. labor market may be starting to deteriorate. In addition to the lower-than-expected 73,000 jobs added in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also recorded a downward revision of 258,000 new jobs in May and June, the largest two-month negative adjustment since 1979. On the other hand, new government statistics suggest that tariffs may be affecting the U.S. market. Although the annual inflation rate of the consumer price index in July was lower than economists expected, the producer price index and import prices surged sharply in July. For monetary policymakers, it's a balancing act. Lowering interest rates could trigger inflationary pressures, but keeping interest rates high for a long time could increase risks to the labor market and the overall economic situation. Analysts warn that Powell may not explicitly confirm a rate cut at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. Some investors are also concerned that Powell may send a more cautious signal in his speech, which could weaken the market's overexpectations. However, some analysts have pointed out that even if the annual meeting itself is not a common cause of large market fluctuations, its "signal release" role cannot be ignored at such a sensitive node. Powell's speech is also likely to discuss another key issue for the Fed – the central bank's framework for analyzing and responding to economic data. The FOMC regularly updates the framework, with the latest version enacted in 2020. Since the beginning of this year, the Fed has been analyzing its current strategy and listening to feedback. The framework is expected to be reviewed by the end of summer and its results will be evaluated. Deutsche Bank analysts wrote that the current framework may have slowed the Fed's response to the spike in inflation in 2022. And that could affect Powell's view of the framework. Deutsche Bank said in the report that "Powell's speech is expected to call for the reversal of the 2020 amendments." "It's worth noting that this annual meeting comes at a time when the Fed is under severe political pressure – Powell's term is coming to an end, and he needs to use it to reinforce central bank independence and policy credibility. As the analysis suggests, if he can clearly show that the Fed relies on data and rationally assesses the economy, without political interference, the impact could go far beyond the interest rate itself. In addition, the minutes of the Fed's July meeting will be released this week, which may provide more clues on the direction of the internal policy discussion. In July, the Fed kept its benchmark federal funds rate (the policy rate that affects borrowing costs for businesses, consumers and governments) unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% for its fifth consecutive meeting. At the same time, investors are paying close attention to the earnings reports of a series of important consumer goods retailers (such as Walmart, Home Depot, Target, etc.) to be released this week to assess the actual confidence and spending of US consumers in the face of inflation and trade frictions, which may have an impact on policy expectations.