July U.S. employment statistics show a slight increase of only 73,000 in the number of employed persons──the unemployment rate rises to 4.2% | CoinDesk JAPAN

• In July, the number of employed persons increased by 73,000, falling short of the expected 110,000.
• The strong increase in the number of employees in June and May was significantly revised downward.
• This data is likely to support calls for the Fed to cut rates as early as September.

According to the employment statistics released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on the morning of the 1st, the number of non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July. This is higher than the increase of 14,000 in June, although the 14,000 was significantly revised down from the initially reported 147,000. Economists had anticipated an increase of 110,000 in payrolls for July.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The forecast was 4.2%, and it was 4.1% in June.

In addition to the significant downward revision of the number of employees in June, the initially announced increase of 144,000 employees in May has also been revised to an increase of 19,000.

Combining these factors, the increase in the number of employees from May to July was approximately 35,000 on average per month. According to Bloomberg's Matthew Boes, this is the slowest employment pace since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC), which had sharply dropped at night, rose slightly to $115,800 (approximately ¥16,790,000, based on an exchange rate of 145 yen to the dollar) within minutes of the announcement.

The reaction of bonds and the US dollar has become much stronger. The 10-year bond yield fell by 10 basis points to 4.30%, and the US dollar dropped nearly 1% against the euro and yen.

The Federal Reserve (FRB) kept its target for the federal funds (FF) rate at 4.25% to 4.50% this week, as expected. However, Chairman Jerome Powell conveyed a hawkish message at the press conference following the meeting. There was a growing consensus that the FRB would lower rates at the next meeting in September, but he cast doubt on that consensus.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in September has subsequently dropped to about 40%, a significant decrease from 75% just a month ago. However, it rose to 55% within minutes after the latest data release.

The employment statistics announced on the morning of the 1st are likely to weaken Chairman Powell's position. The chairman not only faces the interest rate cuts that President Trump has consistently demanded, but he is also currently opposing at least two members of the Federal Reserve Board, Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman. The two board members voted for interest rate cuts at this week's meeting.

| Translation & Editing: Rina Hayashi | Image: Shutterstock ｜Original: U.S. Added Just 73K Jobs in July, Unemployment Rate Rise to 4.2%

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