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The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in July is 97.9%, and there may be a possibility of a rate cut in September.
[Block Rhythm] On July 30, according to "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in July is 97.9% (consistent with the data released before), and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.1%.
The probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in September is 37.9% (up from 34% before the release of the US ADP and GDP data), the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 60.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 1.3%.