🔥 In-depth interpretation: Bitcoin's new highs, whale sell-off, and the future of Ethereum and copycats

BTC broke through $120,000, creating a historical high, but then there was an unusual movement with a Whale Address dumping 80,000 BTC. So what will happen to BTC's future trend? What about ETH and altcoins? This tweet summarizes the analysis of various viewpoints on this matter, including interpretations of future trends and targeted suggestions, providing everyone with a comprehensive and objective perspective. 👇

⭐️ 1. Analysis of the price movement after Bitcoin broke the new high of $120,000 1/12 @Phyrex_Ni believes that although BTC has reached a new high, the price increase is not due to excessive buying power, but rather the extremely low selling volume and liquidity, indicating that most investors view it as a long-term asset. The net flow of BTC on exchanges shows that the amount of coins available for sale continues to decrease, with strong withdrawal demand, leading to high price stability. Unless there is systemic risk, investors' willingness to sell is low. Next week's macro data (CPI, PPI, etc.) may trigger short-term market shocks, and CPI data may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts in September in the short term. In addition, TD Cowen raised its MSTR price target to $680 and predicted that Bitcoin could reach $155,000 by the end of the year. 2/12 @Murphychen888 pointed out in a tweet that the current focus is on whether the market can have enough support when BTC long-term holders (LTH) start to distribute in large quantities. If so, it indicates a main upward wave; otherwise, the market will revert to its original state. Currently, LTH is still in the accumulation phase, buying and holding more Bitcoin, and there has not been a large selling pressure. However, the supply curve's slope is flattening ( The accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders is slowing down, indicating that some people have sold at high prices, and these selling actions are slowing down the overall coin hoarding speed. Murphychen believes that long-term holders of BTC will eventually conduct large-scale distributions. He emphasizes that there are no chips that cannot be sold, only prices that have not met expectations. When the price reaches investors' psychological targets, faith may give way to cashing out. 3/12 The latest analysis by @CryptoPainter_X indicates that the BTC spot premium is slowly recovering, suggesting that this week will be a volatile market, with a potential range between 113k and 123k USD. Although the spot premium has declined after BTC broke through 123k and the futures positions have not decreased, it indicates that the Americans are selling off and the futures bulls are stepping in, suggesting a possible pullback. He emphasized that the core logic is for the bulls to tighten their stop-losses rather than to short; as long as the trend structure is not broken, only look for pullbacks and not short. Currently, the BTC spot premium remains negative, with futures longs unliquidated. Technically, the current price has support at the lower edge of the left-hand range. The sale of 80,000 BTC has led to a large number of short-term holders selling off, and it is expected that before the premium recovers or rises significantly, the market will continue to fluctuate within the range. It is also noted that if the CME gap cannot be quickly filled, it may trigger a larger decline. 4/12 @ai_9684xtpa has a different view on the sale of 80,000 BTC. She believes that for this "fossil hand" Whale, the effects of a one-time sell-off and a long-term gradual sell-off may be similar. If the German government had chosen to prolong the timeline for the dumping, under the continuous negative impact, the price of the coin would still continue to decline, which would instead provide institutions and retail investors with the opportunity to short, ultimately leading to the government's average selling price being significantly lower than the market price. Therefore, for this Whale, dumping in such a manner is simpler and more direct. For ordinary investors, however, the direct deep pullback after a new high may instead provide an entry point to capture market opportunities. This quick release of negative sentiment may help avoid the continuous drain on market sentiment and prices caused by long-term downward trends. 5/12 @Cato_CryptoM pointed out that the current BTC trend is not optimistic, with key support having shifted to around $116,900, which is also the area where the current price is hovering. It is currently impossible to determine whether the pullback is a three-wave continuation or a deeper five-wave decline. Overall, in conjunction with the CPI data, it is relatively mild, temporarily belonging to a relaxation phase after heightened emotions. BTC rebounded but met resistance, continuing to decline, ignoring the 4-hour support and directly referencing the daily support around $113,000. 6/12 @10x_Research's latest report indicates that Bitcoin's recent all-time high is not driven by market speculation, but rather by deeper macroeconomic changes. With significant increases in U.S. debt (such as the newly passed $5 trillion debt ceiling bill) and the upcoming cryptocurrency policy report from the Trump administration among several influencing factors, Bitcoin's role is being redefined. Pay close attention to the cryptocurrency policy report on July 22 and the FOMC meeting on July 30. ⭐️ 2. Judgment on the future performance of Ethereum 7/12 @Alvin0617 summarized the views of the three giants in the crypto space, Cathie Wood @CathieDWood, Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes, and well-known trader Eugene @0xENAS, who all have a positive outlook on ETH. Recently, ETH has been positive, including a record inflow of ETF funds (nearly $1 billion in weekly inflows), the current ETF holdings of $130 billion, and the obvious attitude of institutions to use ETH as a strategic reserve (such as SharpLinkGaming becoming the No. 1 institution in ETH holdings). The Ethereum Foundation is also actively promoting the development of the ecosystem.

• Cathie Wood tweeted to highlight Ethereum's progress in scalability and privacy protection, aiding institutional adoption.
• Arthur Hayes continues to be bullish on ETH to $10,000, and believes that its strength will trigger an altcoin supercycle, especially in the context of fund transfers and central bank money printing, and the whale's ETH holdings increased by 36% in June. - - Eugene is concerned that the ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks through the range of 0.022-0.027, with a medium-term target of 0.03, and if ETH can stabilize at $4,000, a higher target of 0.04+ (corresponding to $5,200 for ETH at 130,000 BTC) is also possible. 8/12 Trader @KoroushAK believes through chart analysis:
• BTC is now in price discovery mode and is usually looking for consolidation, breaking through resistance levels to take long trades.
• ETH has positive news, and as long as it does not fall below the level of 2800 USD, it is expected to continue to remain strong. ⭐️ 3. Judging the overall trend of altcoins, when to enter the altcoin season 9/12 Bloomberg analyst @JSeyff expressed optimism about the prospects of altcoins based on regulatory developments. He predicts that the SEC may approve multiple mainstream altcoin spot ETFs in the second half of 2025, with LTC, SOL, and XRP having a 95% approval probability, DOGE, HBAR, ADA, DOT, and AVAX around 90%, SUI about 60%, and TRX and PENGU at 50%. If these expectations come true, it means that mainstream altcoins will enter an era supported by ETFs and institutional buying, which is expected to significantly boost the popularity and capital flow in related sectors. 10/12 The founder of LD Capital, Yi Lihua @Jackyi_ld, holds a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the timing of the "altcoin season." He stated that the real peak of the altcoin market may only come after the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, which is expected to be confirmed in August or September. After that, with the market liquidity overflowing and the rise of Bitcoin slowing down, a large amount of funds will shift towards the altcoin sector. In other words, although the altcoins may show some improvement in the short term, a full-scale outbreak is difficult, and the altcoin season may not truly begin until the second half of the year. 11/12 @milesdeutscher emphasizes that altcoins are not "dead" and there is still a large amount of speculative capital waiting to act. Taking the example of PUMP raising $500 million in 12 minutes, he believes that what determines whether altcoins can take off is market sentiment and trending topics. As long as the new story is captivating enough, funds will flow into the corresponding sectors. 12/12 ⭐️ Fourth, a summary of the above views BTC: After breaking through historical highs, the resilience shown by BTC and the underlying capital structure indicate that the current uptrend has certain sustainability. The entry of institutional funds, the push from ETFs, and the strengthening of macro hedging properties make this round of market activity different from the past bubbles driven purely by retail investors. In the short term, it cannot be ruled out that Bitcoin may experience fluctuations or moderate pullbacks (such as a 10-15% technical adjustment) at around 120,000, clearing excessive leverage and profit-taking to build momentum for subsequent increases. As long as it does not break key support levels (such as the 100,000 mark), the mid-term uptrend is expected to remain intact. It is worth noting that as prices continue to hit new highs, volatility may increase. In response to the high selling of 80,000 bitcoins by giant whales, it has not caused a continuous impact on the market for the time being, and the willingness to buy is strong. Overall, after multiple cycles, the market reacts more rationally to such "whale events", and will not panic sell because of a single huge transfer, but observe its nature before making judgments. ETH: As the second-largest crypto asset by market capitalization, Ethereum's current relatively lagging performance may only be a temporary phenomenon. Historical experience shows that after Bitcoin has led the rally for a while, funds tend to look for "value depressions", and ETH is one of the preferred targets. It is expected that ETH will strengthen with Bitcoin in the general direction, and make up for the rise in the subsequent market, you can pay attention to the changes in the ETH/BTC ratio, if ETH is relatively strong, it may indicate that funds are rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum. Altcoins: The altcoin season may still require a catalyst, which could be a shift towards a loose macro environment (interest rate cuts) or a natural outflow of funds after a significant increase in Bitcoin's price. It is expected that mainstream leading altcoins (such as SOL, XRP, etc.) will perform well first, but a cautious attitude is still maintained towards mid- and small-cap altcoins. Note that altcoins themselves are highly volatile and have low liquidity, so it is recommended to strictly control positions. In summary, in the face of the fluctuations after Bitcoin's new highs, it is recommended that everyone take advantage of the situation and not be overly attached to leverage. It is advisable to realize some profits to lock in gains, such as taking partial profits in batches and setting strict stop-losses. At the same time, if you are optimistic about the market trend, holding a certain amount of stablecoins can allow you to buy during the pullbacks.