Moderate inflation data boosts risk assets, crypto market fluctuation intensifies

The latest US inflation data for May showed unexpectedly mild signs, bringing positive news to the risk asset market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year rate is 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%; the month-on-month rate is only 0.1%, also below the expected 0.2%. Core inflation data also shows a slowing trend, with a year-on-year rate of 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%; the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate is only 0.1%, far below the expected 0.3%.

After the data was released, the crypto market experienced a trend of rising and then falling. One major cryptocurrency approached $110,000 at one point, while another major cryptocurrency rose by 3% to $2,834, and XRP increased by 1.8% to $2.32. Over the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has remained around $3.4 trillion. According to a data platform, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $300 million within 24 hours, with around $100 million in liquidations for one major cryptocurrency and about $37 million for another major cryptocurrency.

It is worth noting that while the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies are experiencing fluctuations, on-chain data shows an increase in whale activity. A certain on-chain tracking platform found that on June 11, a large amount of cryptocurrency flowed into a certain trading platform. The data shows that in about two hours, multiple anonymous large holders transferred over 3,165 units of a certain mainstream cryptocurrency (worth over $347 million) to the platform through several transactions. Among them, the largest transaction involved 738 units, and other multiple transactions were also large transfers from anonymous wallets.

Notably, 510 units of a certain mainstream encryption currency (worth approximately $56.1 million) were transferred from a well-known crypto trading company to a certain institutional platform, which may suggest that large holders are considering selling their tokens. Although the specific reasons for these transfers have not yet been determined, it could also be an attempt by large holders to adjust their investment portfolios. Given the large and frequent volume of these transfers, and the involvement of a well-known trading company, it is likely the behavior of large participants, particularly institutions.

As a result, a major cryptocurrency has fallen below the $110,000 mark at the opening of the day and is currently stable around $108,677.

From a technical perspective, the current funding rate of certain mainstream crypto market contracts is very stable or relatively low. This usually indicates that the current rebound is mainly driven by investors actually purchasing spot assets, rather than high-leverage contract trading. In the absence of dominant high-leverage positions in the market, the risk of triggering large-scale sell-offs and sharp declines is lower, thus the likelihood of continued price increases is greater.

The daily chart shows that the cryptocurrency opened with a gap up of about 1% yesterday, priced around 110,375 points. After opening, it fluctuated around this price for about 180 minutes, then slowly declined, reaching an intraday low of 108,720 points around 11:33. Around 2:02 PM, the price quickly surged, eventually closing at around 110,455 points, forming a bullish doji candlestick with a longer lower shadow, with a fluctuation of about 1.02%.

Through the analysis of the daily trading channel model, this cryptocurrency is currently operating above the key channel, indicating that the medium-term trend remains strong. The sentiment indicators are also gradually recovering alongside the price increase, suggesting that market confidence is returning.

The 1-hour K-line chart shows that the short-term price is operating above the key line, and the sentiment indicator is in the high zone, about to form a top divergence pattern. This indicates a higher probability of intensified market fluctuations in the short term, and it may retrace to the 108,720 point (intraday low), which requires close attention to whether this low will be broken.

Comprehensive analysis indicates that the market may experience fluctuations in the short term, and investors should closely monitor the key position of 108,720 points. In the medium term, the bullish trend still exists, and investors holding long positions can continue to observe.