Opinion: As missiles strike, Bitcoin demonstrates its strength amidst global chaos.

Author: Michael Tabone, Source: Cointelegraph, Translated by: Shaw Jinse Finance

On Saturday, June 21, the United States launched an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, causing a brief drop in Bitcoin prices, but rebounded before the close on Sunday, down about 1.27% compared to prices before the U.S. military action.

In the 10 days of June, missiles were coming from all directions, the market was turbulent, but Bitcoin held its ground. This is not immunity to war; it's just much more stable than people feared.

Human nature likes to seek patterns, but correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Looking at news headlines, it is easy to think that developments are due to this or that news story. Israel strikes Iran. Iran retaliates. The U.S. drops 30,000 pounds of bunker busters. Bitcoin price falls to $98,286, with headlines sensationalizing the correlation.

However, upon closer inspection, this pullback is orderly. There is no panic. No crash. By the end of the week, Bitcoin still holds steady in the six-digit range, closing at $100,760. The most severe military escalation in the region in years has only caused this asset to drop by 1.27% within 24 hours. This is not a crisis. This is just a market reacting to news as it would to changes in the weather.

Whether you are a trader, a long-term holder, or a newcomer to the world of cryptocurrency, interpreting global news and its impact on Bitcoin price trends is helpful in distinguishing between real signals and noise, and clarifying the factors that influence the market in the short and long term.

Bitcoin price trends and news related to the Iran-Israel conflict (June 12 to June 22, 2025).

Conflicts, Charts, and Causal Traps

Sentiment is crucial for risk assets like Bitcoin, and the recent conflict in the Middle East has impacted Bitcoin's price movement. Noted gold bull and Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff asked on X on Sunday, "Who else is buying the dip below $100,000 besides Michael Saylor?" Although Bitcoin's price once fell to nearly $98,000, the market reacted positively enough to bring it back above the psychological threshold of $100,000 by the end of the day.

The trading price of Bitcoin against the US dollar has been fluctuating continuously, and it is within this range that we can gain the deepest insights. Looking back at the highs and lows of Bitcoin's price movements from June 12 to Sunday, we can see that even though the price of Bitcoin has experienced a consecutive decline over several days, its closing price remains above the low point range of that day, indicating signs of support at the current level.

Considering that the 200-day moving average of Bitcoin is around $95,567, it is reasonable to see a downward trend. The 200-day moving average is a key long-term trend indicator, and if the price drops significantly in the short term, it typically provides market support and resistance levels for the asset.

Bitcoin does indeed fluctuate due to news related to political conflicts. However, it usually stabilizes quickly. From a longer-term perspective, other news headlines may have a greater impact on the price volatility of Bitcoin.

Macroeconomic factors still dominate the market

Looking back at early 2025, when searching for significant news impacting the cryptocurrency market in the medium term, we found that macro news from the United States seems to be more relevant than the recent Iran-Israel conflict. One of the largest price increases for Bitcoin occurred on January 20, during the inauguration of President Trump, followed by a price drop in the following days, but there was no official news from the cryptocurrency industry.

On February 12, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0%, and the core CPI increased to 3.3%, further solidifying the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes. On March 19, the Federal Reserve lowered its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 1.7%, raised the unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, and increased inflation expectations. On April 4, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned that new tariffs could drive up inflation and slow economic growth. On April 10, the CPI fell to 2.3%, raising hopes for a rate cut. On May 13, the CPI remained at 2.3%, but the core inflation rate stubbornly held at 2.8%. On May 30, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) dropped to 2.1%, and core PCE fell to 2.5%. During the Iran-Israel conflict, on June 11, the CPI was 2.4%, and on June 12, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was 0.2%.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged but lowered its GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised its inflation forecast to 3%. This series of macroeconomic data has had an impact on Bitcoin greater than any geopolitical conflict in the past six months.

Even when it peaked at $108,915 on June 16, it coincided with BlackRock reporting an inflow of $412 million into its exchange-traded fund (ETF), which is a rotation of funds rather than a conflict premium.

Bitcoin price trends from 2025 to date, with peaks and troughs compared to U.S. economic news.

Bitcoin performs well during significant geopolitical events

Historically, Bitcoin tends to show an upward trend during periods of geopolitical turmoil. During significant events such as the U.S.-Iran tensions in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, and the current conflict between Iran and Israel in 2025, Bitcoin has demonstrated an upward trend or price stability. Although it is not a traditional safe-haven asset, it often behaves like an uncorrelated hedge tool amid systemic uncertainty.

BlackRock's 2024 report further confirms this, showing that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 index and gold during the past few geopolitical shocks. Its charts highlight Bitcoin's unique performance during crises: while stocks fell and gold fluctuated, Bitcoin often showed an upward trend. This pattern did not break in June 2025 either. Bitcoin did not surge significantly, but it also did not deviate from this trend.

In a world that is extremely eager for non-conformist assets, this is crucial.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index, Gold, and Bitcoin during significant geopolitical events.

Unable to be unaffected by the war, but also unmoved.

In the recent conflict between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin, despite its fluctuations, was not influenced by ideology. It merely reacted to liquidations and capital flows, which is not the same thing. Traders sold off amid uncertainty. Others bought the dip. The demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains steady, and the structure remains stable.

Recently, the conflict between Iran and Israel has become headline news, testing Bitcoin's resilience. This is a real-world stress test that has not resulted in technical failures or institutional fund withdrawals. This is not the kind of bullishness that comes from hype, but rather bullish from a structural standpoint.

When the world was once on the brink of disaster, Bitcoin did not waver, but this tilt is far from over. Black swan events can impact all asset classes and provide potential positive entry opportunities for investors. Determining whether the news effect is short-term, medium-term, or long-term is a tricky question.