Whale high leverage battle, Bitcoin technical structure enters sensitive zone

In the early hours of June 23, the Bitcoin market witnessed another showdown between Whales, with a short position worth over 100 million USD quietly being built. The fluctuations triggered by high leverage operations instantly became the focus of the market. Meanwhile, another Whale reversed the situation through prudent asset management, turning unrealized losses into profits, creating a stark contrast.

Whale Build a Position short positions, market speculation escalates

According to on-chain tracking, well-known trader AguilaTrades established a short position of up to 1000.82 BTC at 01:50 on June 23, using 20x leverage, corresponding to a nominal value of nearly 100 million USD, with an opening price of approximately 99,616 USD. Although this position had an unrealized gain of about 112,000 USD within 20 minutes of its establishment, it soon turned into unrealized losses, and the current paper loss has exceeded 1.34 million USD, with a liquidation price of 104,730 USD.

In contrast, another whale trader nicknamed "Insider Brother" by the market successfully took profits and exited by flexibly adjusting his strategy, earning back and then making over 2 million dollars in profit. The trading styles of the two are completely different, reflecting the importance of trading rhythm in a high fluctuation market.

These large-scale Build a Position actions have not only caused short-term price fluctuations but have also left clear technical traces on the charts.

The trend momentum is weakening, and the rebound is still a repair.

The editor wants to analyze the key features of current price behavior from three dimensions: the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts of BTC/USDT.

Daily Observation:

The current price has rebounded to the line of 101,200 dollars, slightly closing with a bullish candle;

The previous round of decline started from the high point of about $106,500 on June 21, dropping to a low of $98,200;

The trading volume has not effectively expanded, and the price is still operating below the major moving averages and previous highs.

The chart shows a weak repair structure after a decline and has not yet formed a trend reversal.

4-hour observation:

After a strong short-term drop, the price began to consolidate and slowly rebound;

The Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, and the price is attempting to rise above the middle band but has not yet effectively broken through.

Overall, it is still in a round of "decline → consolidation" structure, and has not yet established a reliable bottom.

1 Hour Observation:

The rebound that started from the low point of $98,200 on June 23 has currently risen to over $101,200.

MACD shows a golden cross, the histogram continues to turn red and expands continuously;

However, as the price approaches the previous rebound high, there are signs of weakening momentum.

If the subsequent MACD histogram starts to converge, and the fast and slow lines come closer together, while the price fails to break through 102,000 USD, one must be cautious of a short-term pullback.

The current market is still in a consolidation phase. Although there are signs of a short-term rebound, the momentum is insufficient, and its sustainability is questionable. We need to be alert to the risks of a second bottom test or false breakout. The 1-hour chart serves as a rhythm indicator, so more attention should be paid to the synchronization of momentum and price to determine whether the rebound has a basis for continuation.

Indicator Warning System: Build a Risk Perception Framework

In order to systematically capture structural shifts and market risks, the author attempts to build a technical warning module using AiCoin's custom indicator feature, hoping to help everyone establish a "forward-looking judgment mechanism" for better subsequent decision-making!

Module One: MACD Momentum Convergence Warning

Logical trigger conditions: MACD histogram continuously contracts ≥ 3 bars; the distance between the fast and slow lines narrows, with signs of a death cross or golden cross; at the same time, trading volume shows a significant increase.

This warning can serve as an early alert for trend weakening or reversal, suitable for adjusting position rhythm or setting up reduction reminders.

Module Two: Identifying False Breakouts of Bollinger Bands

Logical trigger conditions: The Bollinger Band width is significantly narrowing; the K-line quickly retracts after breaking through the upper/lower band; the RSI indicator does not create a new high or low.

The Bollinger Bands warning can be used to identify false bullish and bearish trends, preventing blind chasing of price increases or declines in the absence of confirmation signals, and is suitable for strategy reversal identification.

Summary

The current market structure is still in a weak rebound phase after the decline and has not yet formed a trend reversal. For traders, judging the market rhythm and risk signals is much more important than guessing price levels.

By building an indicator warning system, we can capture changes in structure and momentum before price fluctuations occur, allowing for a more proactive and confident execution of strategies.

"Not all fluctuations are worth chasing, but every change in momentum is worth observing."