Nomura: The dollar may weaken further due to the decline of American exceptionalism and other factors, potentially pushing Bitcoin higher.

1. The main factors of the weakening of the US dollar
Nomura Securities' research report points out that the US dollar may weaken further, mainly due to the decline of American exceptionalism and the combined effects of the following factors:
1. The Decline of American Exceptionalism
The relative advantage of the United States in the global economy is weakening, and the appeal of the dollar is also declining. As the global economic landscape diversifies, the economic performance of other countries is gradually improving, challenging the dominant position of the dollar.
2. Concerns about fiscal and current accounts
The United States' fiscal deficit and current account deficit continue to expand, increasing downward pressure on the dollar. The rise in the fiscal deficit means that the government needs to rely more on debt financing, while the current account deficit indicates that the United States is at a disadvantage in international trade.
3. Asset Reallocation and Foreign Exchange Hedging
With the recovery of the global economy, investors are beginning to reallocate their assets, reducing their reliance on dollar-denominated assets and shifting towards other more attractive asset classes. At the same time, companies have increased their foreign exchange hedging operations to hedge against exchange rate risks, further weakening the demand for the dollar.
4. Uncertainty in trade policy
The tariffs and non-tariff policies of the Trump administration have increased trade friction, leading to an unstable global trade environment. This uncertainty has caused investors' confidence in the dollar to decline, which in turn has weakened the dollar.
2. The Impact of a Weaker Dollar on Bitcoin Trends
1. The inverse relationship between the US dollar and Bitcoin
Bitcoin and the US dollar usually have an inverse relationship. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset increases, and investors may shift funds from the dollar to Bitcoin, thereby driving up the price of Bitcoin.
2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
The weakening of the US dollar may trigger concerns in the market about global economic uncertainty, leading to an increase in investors' risk appetite and subsequently boosting allocations to high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, the continued capital inflow into Bitcoin ETFs also indicates that institutional investors' confidence in Bitcoin is strengthening.
3. Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics
Currently, the Bitcoin price is fluctuating between $83,000 and $88,000, with $88,000 being an important short-term resistance level. If the dollar continues to weaken, Bitcoin is expected to break through this resistance level and rise further to $100,000. However, if Bitcoin fails to break through $88,000 with a weekly candle close, the bearish trend will still dominate.
4. Long-term outlook
In the long term, the Bitcoin halving event will reduce the selling pressure from miners, while the increase in institutional holdings will further strengthen the supply tightening logic of Bitcoin. Standard Chartered Bank predicts a year-end target price of $200,000 for Bitcoin, indicating that the market is relatively optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin.
3. Summary
Nomura Securities' research indicates that the trend of the US dollar weakening may continue into the second half of next year, primarily due to the decline of American exceptionalism, concerns over fiscal and current accounts, asset reallocation and foreign exchange hedging, as well as uncertainty in trade policies. In this context, the appeal of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset is increasing, and its price is expected to rise further. Investors need to closely monitor the movements of the US dollar, changes in Federal Reserve policy, and global economic dynamics to timely adjust their investment strategies.