Is the current cycle of Bitcoin slowing down or maturing?

When the price of Bitcoin rises above $95,000, some market followers have begun to question whether the current cycle is performing worse than previous bullish phases. However, according to Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital and the mind behind the new Bitcoin cycle model, those fears may be misguided. Bitcoin Cycle Model: Explanation In a pinned tweet on May 3rd, Sina introduced its exclusive Bitcoin cycle model — a tool that combines the traditional (QM) percentile model with additional cycle time factors. This model overlays the historical performance of Bitcoin with the average of the previous cycle to assess whether the current market behavior is lagging behind.

The chart you shared shows many indicators: Price range ( and 99) – Representing extreme historical valuationPower law price curve – A theoretical forecast of long-term price behaviorCycle model curve (orange) – The average trajectory of previous cyclesActual Price Log – The actual price volatility of Bitcoin This image clearly shows one thing: Bitcoin is still following the expected growth trajectory, just at a pace that aligns with "diminishing returns" — a characteristic of each successive cycle. The decrease in volatility does not mean a deviation. Sina points out that although this cycle may make many people feel "boring", it is due to the slowdown in volatility rather than a lack of execution. The ETF launch, price action after the halving, and macro developments ( including potential political changes like Trump's re-election ) may have "prolonged" some expected price growth. "We are still on the right track," Sina affirmed, reassuring the community that this model remains intact even when the pace is no longer booming like in 2017 or 2021. Why is this important? With institutional capital now playing a much larger role and ETFs absorbing liquidity, the current stagnation in prices may become the new norm — and that does not mean the bullish market has gone off course. What is the takeaway? Bitcoin may not slow down. It could be maturing.