BTC breaks new high of $120,000! The SEC lawsuit against Ripple sees a glimmer of hope, can XRP take advantage and challenge its historical peak?

🔒 SEC vs XRP: Will This Week Be the Final Showdown?

• Closed-door meeting decides appeal fate: On July 17 (Thursday), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold its third closed-door meeting since Judge Analisa Torres denied the joint motion for a summary judgment on the settlement terms between XRP and the SEC. This meeting may provide an opportunity for SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and the commissioners to vote on whether to abandon the appeal in the XRP case.
• Review of Appeal Withdrawal Conditions: The SEC and XRP had previously reached an agreement that if Judge Torres makes a favorable indicative ruling on the settlement terms (including lifting the ban on selling XRP to institutional investors and reducing the $1.25 billion fine to $50 million), both parties will waive their respective appeals.
• XRP Takes the Lead, SEC Pressure Increases: It is worth noting that despite Judge Torres rejecting the settlement terms, XRP has announced the abandonment of its cross-appeal. If the SEC was willing to withdraw its appeal based on a ruling favorable to XRP, then without a settlement, the agency is unlikely to vote against the abandonment of the appeal.
• XRP Price Reacts Positively: Since Ripple announced it would abandon the cross-appeal, the price of XRP has surged from $2.0692 to a high of $2.9727 on July 11. Despite this breakthrough, the token price remains well below its historical high of $3.5505 in 2018 and its high of $3.3999 in 2025. If the SEC formally announces the withdrawal of the appeal, it could become a catalyst for XRP to break its historical high.

⚖️ Crypto Legislative Week: The "Clarity Act" Becomes the Focus

• XRP CEO Testifies Before Congress: Although the SEC lawsuit against XRP remains a key driver for XRP, legislative progress has also boosted market sentiment. On July 9 (Wednesday), XRP CEO Brad Garlinghouse testified before the Senate Banking Committee at a hearing titled "From Wall Street to Web3: Building the Future of the Digital Asset Market." He used this platform to emphasize the court rulings in the XRP case.
• Call for the Passage of the CLARITY Act: Garlinghouse advocates for lawmakers to quickly pass the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act and commented: "...Therefore, I am concerned about relying on a non-elected appointed official to make these decisions, as it assumes a good-faith actor. And what I believe we are seeing with the recent SEC is a war against the entire industry, with laws not being applied consistently."
• Core Content of the Bill: The Clarity Act aims to create a regulatory framework for digital assets, including clarifying the roles of the SEC and CFTC in regulating the market. Notably, the bill also prohibits exchanges from mixing customer assets with their own assets, aiming to prevent another FTX incident.
• Key Votes in Crypto Week: This week is Critical Week for Crypto Legislation. The House of Representatives will vote on the GENIUS Act, Clear Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. The SEC may also release its framework for cryptocurrency spot ETF submissions, which could accelerate the approval process for the XRP spot ETF. The conclusion of the Ripple case and the launch of the XRP spot ETF could elevate XRP to the second position in the cryptocurrency market capitalization ranking, surpassing Ethereum (ETH).

📈 XRP Price Prediction: Crypto Week, SEC Appeal Vote and ETF News

• Recent Strong Performance: XRP rose by 3.56% on July 13 (last Sunday), continuing the 0.20% increase from last Saturday, closing at $2.8353. The token outperformed the overall cryptocurrency market (up 1.52%), pushing the total cryptocurrency market cap to $3.67 trillion.
• Key Drivers: The short-term price outlook of XRP depends on:
  • SEC Appeal Vote Result
  • Legislative progress of the crypto bill (especially the "Clarity Act")
  • US XRP Spot ETF Related Headlines
• Potential Upside Target (Bullish Scenario):
  • Breaking the July 11 high of $2.9727 could target bulls towards the 2025 high of $3.3999.
  • If it continues to break through 3.3999 USD, it may challenge the historical high of 3.5505 USD in 2018.
• Potential Downside Risks (Bearish Scenario):
• Breaking below $2.50 may open the door to retesting $2.40.
  • Further declines may reach the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

₿ Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High: Surge in Spot ETF Inflows

• BTC Hits New High: While XRP enjoys six consecutive gains, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a historic high of $119,000 during early trading on July 14.
• Bull Market Drivers:
  • Legislative Progress: The advancement of the U.S. regulatory framework may boost BTC adoption and pave the way for legislators to pass the Bitcoin Bill.
  • U.S. BTC Spot ETF Fund Inflow: As of the week ending July 11, the total net inflow reached $2.718 billion, extending the weekly inflow winning streak to five weeks.
  • Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 64.6%, slightly down from 68.1% on July 3.
• BTC Price Prediction: Legislation and Spot ETF Capital Flow are Key
• BTC rose by 1.72% on July 13, closing at $118,625, reversing a 0.23% decline on Saturday.
• Short-term outlook depends on: legislative voting results, Federal Reserve policy stance, and spot ETF capital flow trends.
• Potential Scenario Analysis:
  • Bearish Scenario: Legislative hurdles + Federal Reserve hawkish signals + ETF capital outflows. These factors combined may drag BTC towards $110,000 and touch 50-day EMA.
  • Bullish Scenario: Bipartisan support for crypto legislation + Dovish signals from the Federal Reserve + Inflows into ETFs. In this scenario, BTC may target $120,000.

👀 Key Focus Points This Week

Investors should closely monitor the following key drivers that will determine whether XRP and BTC can break through historical highs:

1. XRP Case Progress: Final Decision on SEC Appeal Plan (Results of the closed-door meeting).
2. Cryptocurrency Legislation Dynamics: The Congressional hearings and voting results of key bills (especially the Clarity Act).
3. Federal Reserve Policy Guidance: Officials' statements are hawkish (favoring interest rate hikes/not cutting rates) or dovish (favoring interest rate cuts).
4. ETF Market Capital Flows: The trend of capital flow is crucial for the supply and demand balance of BTC, and it will also affect the expectations for the XRP spot ETF.
5. Analyst Opinion Update: With the evolution of legal and political risks, pay attention to professional analysts' latest predictions on XRP and BTC target price levels.